BC Gov News
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Backgrounders
Economic highlights
- B.C.’s economy is projected to see 1.4% real GDP growth in 2025 and 1.3% growth in 2026. Growth for both years is within the range of private-sector forecasters.
- Strong consumer spending, steady residential construction and government investments have supported economic growth, despite lower home sales and exports.
- Continued uncertainty caused by unpredictable U.S. tariffs has negatively affected exports and business investment.
- Employment is up by 1.2% year-to-date to October.
- At 6.6% in October, B.C.’s unemployment rate was below the national average.
- In December 2025, the minister will meet with the independent Economic Forecast Council to discuss B.C.’s economic outlook ahead of Budget 2026.
Operating results
- Revenue for 2025-26 is forecast to be $83.8 billion, $512 million higher than First Quarterly Report projections.
- Higher revenue mainly reflects a higher forecast for corporate and personal income tax revenues, based on updates from the federal government showing stronger 2024 preliminary tax assessment information and outlook for the national corporate income tax base.
- Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $565 million higher than in the First Quarterly Report, mainly reflecting improved B.C. payment share of the national tax base.
- Personal income tax revenue forecast is up $816 million due to stronger 2024 preliminary tax assessment resulting in prior year adjustments, as well as improvement in year-to-date activity in financial markets.
- Increases to revenue are partly offset by lower revenue from other taxation revenues, natural resources, investment earnings, federal funding changes and net income from commercial Crown corporations.
- Forecast natural resource revenue is down $224 million from the First Quarterly Report, including:
- Revenue from coal, metals, minerals and other mining-related sources is down $121 million, due to lower year-to-date mineral tax instalment payments as well as lower coal prices and demand.
- Forestry revenue is down $43 million, mainly due to lower stumpage revenue.
- Revenue from Columbia River Treaty electricity sales is down $34 million due to lower prices.
- Expenses are projected to increase slightly by $122 million, due mainly to higher refundable tax credits, such as credits related to capital gains in line with higher personal income tax forecast, as well as mining exploration and digital interactive media credits that help businesses and support job creation across the province, and higher spending by service-delivery agencies.
Debt levels
- Taxpayer-supported debt is projected at $117.7 billion by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year, $315 million lower than in the First Quarterly Report.
- Debt metrics for B.C. remain among the lowest in Canada, including the forecast for debt-to-GDP at 26.4% for 2025-26.
Expenditure management
- Government is on track to meet its initial-year target of $300 million in savings in 2025-26 through administrative savings, reductions in discretionary spending, freezing hiring and reviewing programs for efficiency.
- Government continues work on program efficiency reviews in advance of Budget 2026.
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